Change in Curveball Value: 2016 Edition

Using total bases per 100 pitches as a measure of effectiveness, I compared 2015 to 2016. I also compared balls per 100 pitches, but with a few exceptions those were fairly stable over the two seasons. A lower TB/100 and B/100 is better, so a negative number signifies an improvement and a positive number shows the pitch was worse in 2016 than in 2015.
 TB/100 2015TB/100 2016Difference B/100 2015B/100 2016Difference
Zach Duke102.4-7.6Zack Greinke40.628.2-12.4
Chase Anderson8.44.5-3.9Taijuan Walker5040.6-9.4
J.A. Happ9.25.3-3.9Will Harris50.942-8.9
Madison Bumgarner7.84.5-3.4Danny Duffy44.335.9-8.4
Kyle Hendricks74-2.9Julio Teheran4335.2-7.8
Shelby Miller9.26.4-2.7Stephen Strasburg40.733.9-6.8
Max Scherzer8.15.6-2.5Rick Porcello51.144.3-6.7
Trevor Bauer7.65.5-2.1Brad Hand48.542.9-5.6
Justin Verlander7.55.4-2.1Marco Estrada45.841.1-4.7
Tanner Roark10.48.5-2Justin Verlander40.636.4-4.2
Jon Lester6.54.5-2Yordano Ventura42.238.2-4
Jordan Zimmermann8.16.2-1.9Tanner Roark35.832.1-3.7
Yovani Gallardo86.3-1.8Madison Bumgarner41.838.5-3.3
Justin Grimm5.54-1.5Kyle Hendricks44.842.2-2.6
Rick Porcello6.65.1-1.5Clay Buchholz3734.8-2.2
Brad Hand5.23.8-1.4Trevor Bauer45.543.4-2
Ryan Vogelsong11.810.5-1.3Yovani Gallardo48.546.5-2
Noah Syndergaard7.36.2-1.1Ivan Nova44.442.4-2
Kevin Quackenbush8.27.3-0.9Wade Miley38.636.7-1.9
Corey Kluber6.25.4-0.9David Hernandez3634.3-1.6
Aaron Nola8.17.5-0.7Justin Grimm38.236.8-1.4
Chad Bettis1110.4-0.6Aaron Sanchez44.143.2-0.9
Clayton Kershaw5.24.7-0.5Michael Fiers52.651.9-0.7
Aaron Sanchez7.47-0.4Scott Feldman45.945.5-0.4
Jeremy Hellickson6.96.5-0.4Cole Hamels39.739.3-0.3
Gio Gonzalez6.76.3-0.3Carlos Carrasco29.129-0.2
Jered Weaver11.211.1-0.1Jake Arrieta42.1420
Jose Fernandez770Kevin Jepsen45.545.50
Avg7.57.60.1Avg40.540.60.1
Will Harris4.24.30.1Jered Weaver26.426.80.3
Carlos Matias77.10.1Jacob DeGrom35.936.80.9
Kevin Jepsen66.20.2Brett Cecil32331
David Hernandez8.48.60.2Kevin Quackenbush42.944.11.2
Clay Buchholz6.67.40.8Zach Duke41.843.31.5
Cole Hamels4.55.40.9Chad Bettis40.241.81.6
Danny Duffy6.77.81.1Corey Kluber30.231.91.8
Michael Wacha4.15.31.2Jordan Zimmermann32.8352.2
Scott Feldman9.310.51.2Aaron Nola28.430.82.4
Michael Fiers4.25.51.3Gio Gonzalez47.449.82.4
Yordano Ventura5.87.11.3Shelby Miller38.641.12.5
Zack Greinke7.58.91.4Collin McHugh36.939.72.8
Collin McHugh6.78.21.4Jon Lester42.945.93
Jake Arrieta5.87.31.5Carlos Matias34.337.33
Stephen Strasburg6.17.61.5J.A. Happ46.750.94.2
Taijuan Walker7.89.61.7Jose Fernandez28.332.84.5
John Lackey10.1121.8Jeremy Hellickson37.442.14.7
Julio Teheran5.77.61.9Jeff Manship37.842.64.9
Keone Kela4.16.62.5Chase Anderson46.4525.6
Carlos Carrasco4.97.52.5Jose Quintana35.741.45.8
Sonny Gray5.37.92.6Michael Wacha39.645.96.3
Wade Miley9.111.82.7Keone Kela3138.37.3
Jacob DeGrom810.92.8John Lackey25.733.57.8
Brett Cecil5.88.83Sonny Gray37.746.18.3
Ivan Nova5.58.83.3Noah Syndergaard36.1458.9
Jeff Manship374Felix Hernandez32.1418.9
Jose Quintana6.210.14Clayton Kershaw36.745.89.1
Anibal Sanchez8.813.14.3Max Scherzer39.348.49.1
Marco Estrada5.69.94.3Anibal Sanchez32.344.812.5
Felix Hernandez3.484.6Ryan Vogelsong36.651.615

Follow these links for the changes in value for each of the respective pitches: fastball, slider, changeup.


Follow Ian on Twitter @iayork

Featured image courtesy of David J. Philip/AP Photo

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Ian is an immunologist and virologist who lives in Atlanta with his wife and two sons. Most of his time is spent driving his kids to baseball and soccer games, during which he indoctrinates his children on the glories of Pedro Martinez, the many virtues of the Montreal Expos, and other important information.

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