Change in Fastball Value: 2016 Edition

Using total bases per 100 pitches as a measure of effectiveness, I compared 2015 to 2016. I also compared balls per 100 pitches, but with a few exceptions those were fairly stable over the two seasons. A lower TB/100 and B/100 is better, so a negative number signifies an improvement and a positive number shows the pitch was worse in 2016 than in 2015.
 TB/100 2015TB/100 2016Difference B/100 2015B/100 2016Difference
Hector Neris12.84.7-8.1Aaron Sanchez43.434.8-8.6
Francisco Rodriguez12.95-7.9Collin McHugh39.931.9-8
Carlos Matias12.95.8-7.1Thomas Kahnle43.936.6-7.3
Mat Latos14.27.7-6.5Cesar Ramos40.133-7.1
Matt Barnes12.96.9-6Jesse Chavez38.831.9-6.9
Matt Garza14.78.8-5.8Brandon Maurer37.230.8-6.4
Tyler Thornburg11.15.3-5.8James Paxton37.531.1-6.4
Buck Farmer15.79.9-5.8Boone Logan44.338.1-6.3
Miguel Gonzalez11.45.8-5.6Erik Johnson36.129.9-6.2
Mike Morin13.68.3-5.3Addison Reed29.823.8-6
Brad Hand9.74.5-5.2Scott Oberg35.229.3-5.9
Ian Krol9.14.3-4.8Hector Rondon34.629.2-5.4
Bud Norris13.48.7-4.7Kyle Gibson46.841.4-5.4
Matt Boyd15.110.6-4.5Bruce Rondon38.633.2-5.4
Dustin McGowan13.18.6-4.5Tyler Wilson34.729.6-5.1
Kyle Ryan11.87.3-4.5Erik Goeddel3833.1-4.9
Neftali Feliz12.98.5-4.4Archie Bradley39.734.9-4.8
Felix Hernandez12.78.4-4.3Mike Wright37.833.6-4.3
Joe Blanton10.66.6-4Brad Hand3732.7-4.2
David Phelps95-4R.A. Dickey24.320.3-4
Tyler Cravy128.1-3.9Aroldis Chapman36.432.4-4
Jonathan Broxton13.39.4-3.9Matt Shoemaker3632.2-3.8
Christian Friedrich12.58.6-3.9Travis Wood33.229.4-3.8
Kirby Yates10.56.7-3.8Johnny Cueto35.431.7-3.7
Adam Liberatore9.96.2-3.7Matt Boyd37.133.4-3.7
Daniel Hudson12.28.7-3.5Wade Davis34.831.2-3.6
Heath Hembree12.59-3.4Joshua Fields30.527-3.5
Joe Kelly9.96.5-3.4Tyler Lyons36.433.1-3.3
Jonathan Gray12.79.3-3.4Jeremy Hellickson36.233-3.2
Ryan Madson10.77.4-3.3Michael Dunn33.830.6-3.2
Xavier Cedeno9.56.2-3.3Ian Krol38.735.5-3.1
Joaquin Benoit6.33-3.2Jeff Samardzija3330.1-3
Robbie Ross11.27.9-3.2Joe Blanton3027.1-2.9
David Price9.15.9-3.2Anibal Sanchez37.935-2.9
Addison Reed10.27.1-3.1Wade Miley38.135.3-2.8
Wily Peralta13.410.2-3.1Clayton Kershaw30.828.1-2.7
Phil Hughes16.813.7-3.1Carlos Villanueva36.233.6-2.6
Scott Oberg11.48.4-3Casey Fien31.428.8-2.6
Tyler Lyons10.77.7-3Drew Smyly33.230.6-2.6
Jose Quintana118.1-3Julio Teheran38.135.5-2.6
Ervin Santana12.79.8-2.9Ervin Santana36.634-2.6
Cameron Bedrosian8.86-2.8Daniel Hudson36.634.1-2.5
Carlos Torres10.27.5-2.8Rick Porcello32.430.1-2.4
Bradley Boxberger8.15.5-2.6Jake Odorizzi33.831.4-2.3
Mike Montgomery13.811.3-2.6Jon Lester37.334.9-2.3
Colby Lewis12.19.6-2.5Shawn Tolleson34.131.8-2.3
Bruce Rondon10.88.3-2.5Pedro Baez30.828.5-2.3
Matt Moore11.48.9-2.5Sean Doolittle28.626.3-2.3
Raciel Iglesias96.6-2.4Ryan Vogelsong38.836.6-2.2
Josh Smith10.48-2.4Cody Anderson35.433.2-2.2
Marco Estrada8.46-2.4Kevin Siegrist34.932.7-2.2
John Lackey9.67.3-2.3Christian Friedrich38.736.5-2.2
Bartolo Colon11.39.1-2.2Jake Arrieta36.334.1-2.2
Cody Martin10.78.5-2.2Chasen Shreve36.334.2-2.1
Roberto Osuna9.77.6-2.1Yusmeiro Petit3532.9-2.1
Jose Fernandez107.9-2.1Alexi Ogando3532.9-2.1
Alfredo Simon9.77.7-2Hector Neris33.931.9-2.1
Dallas Keuchel10.38.3-2Heath Hembree36.734.6-2.1
Pedro Baez10.18.1-2Xavier Cedeno36.234.1-2.1
Jerad Eickhoff11.29.3-2Michael Blazek38.736.7-2
Tony Cingrani9.17.2-1.9Tyler Thornburg34.432.4-2
Jason Hammel12.510.6-1.9Josh Smith39.637.6-2
Thomas Kahnle7.15.2-1.9Enrique Burgos41.639.7-2
Tyler Clippard7.85.9-1.9Kyle Ryan31.429.5-1.9
Spencer Patton11.39.4-1.9David Hernandez35.533.6-1.9
Ian Kennedy108.2-1.8Andrew Miller34.632.7-1.9
Michael Lorenzen11.69.8-1.8Brad Brach33.932-1.9
Yusmeiro Petit13.111.3-1.8Alex Wilson34.732.9-1.8
Rick Porcello9.98.1-1.7Ross Detwiler43.441.6-1.8
Jonathan Papelbon10.38.6-1.7Daniel Norris35.133.3-1.8
Shawn Kelley8.26.5-1.7Ian Kennedy32.630.9-1.8
Madison Bumgarner9.37.7-1.7Justin Verlander33.531.7-1.8
Keyvius Sampson13.211.6-1.6Martin Perez39.537.7-1.8
Ivan Nova16.915.3-1.6Robbie Ray35.333.5-1.7
Daniel Jennings86.4-1.6Sonny Gray3533.3-1.7
Jose Alvarez10.89.2-1.6Kenneth Giles3634.4-1.6
David Hernandez9.88.2-1.6David Phelps32.330.7-1.6
Danny Salazar8.87.2-1.5Shelby Miller33.632-1.5
R.A. Dickey15.213.6-1.5Bud Norris36.334.8-1.5
Ross Detwiler7.86.3-1.5Tyler Clippard34.533-1.5
Corey Knebel10.48.9-1.5Garrett Richards34.733.2-1.5
Chris Tillman9.47.9-1.5Nathan Eovaldi34.933.5-1.4
Brett Oberholtzer12.611.2-1.5Jorge De La Rosa39.738.3-1.4
Alexi Ogando9.48-1.4Tom Wilhelmsen3432.6-1.4
Juan Ramirez10.79.3-1.4Edinson Volquez40.739.4-1.4
Stephen Strasburg9.78.4-1.3Adam Warren38.737.3-1.4
Craig Kimbrel7.66.3-1.3Anthony DeSclafani33.231.8-1.4
Max Scherzer9.78.5-1.2Justin Grimm41.440-1.4
Hansel Robles9.17.9-1.2Colby Lewis35.234-1.3
William Smith9.98.7-1.2Yovani Gallardo36.435.2-1.3
Jose Diaz8.97.7-1.2Kelvin Herrera32.631.3-1.3
Josh Tomlin11.810.6-1.2Jose Alvarez31.530.3-1.3
John Lamb10.59.4-1.1William Smith35.234-1.3
Rich Hill64.9-1Edwin Jackson40.439.1-1.2
Jon Lester8.27.1-1Carlos Torres38.537.3-1.2
Wade Miley11.510.5-1Mychal Givens3331.8-1.2
Kevin Gausman10.89.8-1Daniel Jennings3735.8-1.2
Aroldis Chapman54-1Juan Ramirez33.332.2-1.1
Jimmy Nelson9.98.9-1Juan Nicasio34.933.8-1.1
Matthew Andriese11.310.3-1Randall Delgado34.933.8-1.1
Nathan Karns9.88.8-0.9Eddie Butler34.933.8-1.1
Bryan Mitchell11.410.5-0.9Mark Lowe35.134.1-1
Eduardo Rodriguez8.77.8-0.9Jordan Lyles35.234.2-1
Andrew Miller7.46.5-0.9Zack Greinke3332.1-0.9
Trevor Rosenthal7.36.5-0.9Shawn Kelley32.331.5-0.8
Nathan Eovaldi9.28.4-0.8Matthew Andriese35.434.6-0.8
Enrique Burgos7.46.7-0.7Roberto Osuna28.727.9-0.8
Matthew Wisler13.112.4-0.7Noah Syndergaard31.330.5-0.8
Justin Verlander98.3-0.7Raciel Iglesias35.734.9-0.7
Cody Allen8.88.1-0.7Koji Uehara27.626.9-0.7
Hunter Strickland6.65.9-0.7Danny Duffy31.931.2-0.7
Aaron Nola11.210.5-0.7Taijuan Walker3130.3-0.7
Alejandro Ramos8.37.9-0.4John Axford37.537-0.5
Michael Pineda12.311.9-0.3Vincent Velasquez33.533.1-0.5
Cole Hamels10.310-0.3Hisashi Iwakuma32.832.4-0.4
Tom Koehler10.19.8-0.3Tony Cingrani37.937.5-0.4
Daniel Norris11.311-0.2Logan Verrett3736.7-0.3
Brad Brach76.8-0.2Justin Wilson33.132.8-0.3
John Axford76.8-0.2Kevin Gausman31.731.6-0.2
Jose Urena12.512.3-0.2C.C. Sabathia33.132.9-0.2
Brian Ellington7.47.3-0.1Cody Allen32.832.7-0.1
J.A. Happ8.17.9-0.1Dustin McGowan36.536.4-0.1
Anibal Sanchez10.310.1-0.1Jonathan Gray36.936.90
Matt Cain12.512.4-0.1Clay Buchholz34.734.80.1
Fernando Salas8.98.8-0.1Matt Harvey30.530.60.1
Mychal Givens7.77.7-0.1Severino Gonzalez31.731.80.1
Taijuan Walker9.79.70Jonathon Niese3434.20.1
Tommy Milone10.410.40Liam Hendriks26.626.80.2
C.C. Sabathia10.810.90Ubaldo Jimenez3939.10.2
Lance McCullers9.79.70.1Cole Hamels35.435.60.2
Jered Weaver12.112.20.1Neftali Feliz31.131.30.2
Arquimedes Caminero11.411.50.1Elvis Araujo39.539.70.2
Jake Arrieta6.26.30.1Kevin Quackenbush32.332.60.2
Avg9.69.80.2Eduardo Rodriguez35.7360.3
Alexander Colome9.49.50.2Miguel Gonzalez33.934.20.3
Noah Syndergaard8.78.90.2Tony Sipp34.134.40.3
Jarred Cosart8.58.70.2Alexander Colome35.135.50.4
Junichi Tazawa11.411.70.2Avg34.434.70.4
Jeremy Hellickson11.511.70.2Jake Peavy30.931.40.5
Juan Nicasio7.88.10.3Matt Belisle27.628.10.5
Nicholas Martinez12.312.60.3Kevin Jepsen32.432.90.5
Joakim Soria9.19.50.3Rubby De La Rosa36.4370.6
Kelvin Herrera7.57.80.4Tyler Duffey3737.70.7
Odrisamer Despaigne8.48.80.4Joe Kelly37.3380.7
Jason Motte8.48.80.4Antonio Bastardo32.733.40.7
Danny Duffy9.39.70.4Blaine Boyer29.630.30.7
Kyle Barraclough4.75.10.4Jordan Zimmermann33.734.50.8
Koji Uehara6.46.90.5Adam Conley35.636.40.8
Garrett Richards7.98.40.5Jaime Garcia31.832.60.8
Jake Odorizzi7.88.20.5Gerrit Cole33.434.30.9
Clayton Kershaw7.98.50.5Alejandro Ramos35.236.11
Drew Hutchison11.812.30.5Gonzalez Germen43.9451.1
Keone Kela8.79.30.5Carlos Carrasco32.133.31.2
Yovani Gallardo9.710.20.6Adam Liberatore32.233.51.2
Trevor Bauer9.610.20.6Justin Miller34.8361.3
Andrew Cashner8.38.90.6Tommy Milone37.438.71.3
Luis Severino10.611.30.7Keone Kela35.236.51.3
Fernando Rodriguez6.57.10.7Chase Anderson33.735.11.4
Wei-Yin Chen1010.70.7Michael Lorenzen38.6401.4
Hector Rondon7.88.60.7John Lamb3839.31.4
Robbie Ray77.70.7Jered Weaver36.137.51.4
Brandon Maurer8.99.70.8Trevor Bauer37.138.51.4
Christopher Rusin12.112.90.8Bryan Mitchell37.6391.4
Gerrit Cole7.88.70.9Justin Nicolino35.937.31.5
Enny Romero9.210.10.9Jose Quintana31.5331.5
Gonzalez Germen9.810.81Matt Barnes36.838.31.5
Trevor May9.310.31Michael Foltynewicz32.5341.6
Johnny Cueto5.56.51Adam Morgan35.937.41.6
Sean Doolittle8.99.91Matt Cain33.3351.6
Vincent Velasquez7.78.81Dellin Betances34.436.11.7
Yordano Ventura8.89.81.1Matt Moore32.233.91.7
Michael Foltynewicz9.110.21.1Michael Fiers31.533.21.7
Wade Davis4.45.51.1Ivan Nova35.637.41.8
Adam Morgan13.314.41.1Chad Bettis3637.81.8
Adam Warren5.46.51.1J.A. Happ30.332.11.8
Kyle Gibson1112.21.2John Lackey30.332.11.9
Martin Perez9.310.51.3Michael Wacha31.533.31.9
Oliver Perez9.310.61.3J.J. Hoover37.239.11.9
Matt Harvey8.69.91.3Marco Estrada35.737.71.9
Jeff Samardzija10.812.21.4Patrick Corbin32.834.71.9
Hisashi Iwakuma6.88.21.4Carlos Matias32.534.41.9
Blaine Hardy6.27.71.5Jose Urena33.735.62
Michael Dunn9.110.61.5Enny Romero37.639.62
Edinson Volquez7.99.41.5Jarred Cosart37.439.42
Shawn Tolleson10.412.11.7Kyle Barraclough40.342.32.1
Boone Logan12.213.91.7Drew Pomeranz30.332.42.1
Zach McAllister8.610.41.8Cameron Bedrosian34.636.82.2
Dellin Betances7.39.11.8Matt Garza28.430.62.2
Corey Kluber9.711.51.8Bradley Boxberger32.134.32.2
James Paxton9.511.31.8James Shields36.238.52.3
Michael Wacha8.710.51.8Wei-Yin Chen27.830.32.5
Julio Teheran78.91.9Jason Grilli31.333.82.5
Aaron Sanchez5.87.71.9Cody Martin32.4352.6
Erik Goeddel9.411.31.9Zach McAllister31.834.52.6
Chase Anderson10.412.42Phil Hughes24.627.22.6
Kevin Siegrist6.88.82Brett Oberholtzer31.233.92.7
James Shields9.811.82Buck Farmer35.838.62.7
Chad Bettis10.112.12Josh Tomlin32.435.12.7
Archie Bradley8.210.32.1Nathan Karns36.238.92.8
Elvis Araujo5.57.62.1Bartolo Colon28.431.22.8
Severino Gonzalez8.410.52.1Trevor Rosenthal32.435.22.8
Gio Gonzalez6.99.12.2Vidal Nuno30.333.22.8
Jason Grilli8.210.32.2Brian Ellington32.235.12.9
Adam Conley79.22.2Jose Fernandez30.133.13
Patrick Corbin10.412.72.4Yordano Ventura35.838.93
Jacob DeGrom79.52.5Stephen Strasburg27.630.73.1
Mike Wright8.711.22.5Felix Hernandez38.241.23.1
Drew Pomeranz7.19.62.5Trevor May30.133.23.1
Tyler Duffey10.212.72.5Joel Peralta29.732.83.2
Christopher Archer6.99.42.5Chris Young37.941.13.3
Michael Fiers10.713.22.6Mike Morin34.137.53.4
Mark Lowe10.713.42.6Madison Bumgarner30.734.13.4
Michael Blazek9.111.82.6Christopher Archer38.441.73.4
Jordan Zimmermann10.313.12.7Junichi Tazawa3033.53.5
Drew Smyly6.69.42.7Chris Tillman33.236.73.5
Felipe Rivero6.79.62.9Joaquin Benoit31.334.83.5
Jordan Lyles11.214.12.9Erasmo Ramirez28.131.73.5
Henry Owens9.212.23Steven Geltz30.734.33.5
Matt Belisle3.973Tom Koehler38.542.23.6
Matt Shoemaker10.113.13Craig Kimbrel33.3373.7
Eddie Butler11.714.73.1Hansel Robles30.233.93.7
Rubby De La Rosa7.510.53.1Luis Severino31.435.13.7
Anthony DeSclafani8.811.93.1Keyvius Sampson34.137.83.7
Ricky Nolasco8.8123.2Nicholas Martinez32.736.43.7
Blaine Boyer7.710.93.2Tyler Cravy33.937.73.8
Casey Fien912.33.2Max Scherzer25.529.33.8
Vidal Nuno11.414.93.4Gio Gonzalez31.935.73.8
Kevin Quackenbush7.310.73.4Jason Motte29.633.53.9
Ryan Vogelsong8.211.63.4Joakim Soria30.834.84
Chasen Shreve8.111.63.5Felipe Rivero30.434.44
Tony Sipp8.211.83.6Jonathan Broxton29.633.74.1
Carlos Carrasco9.312.93.6Jimmy Nelson33.437.64.1
Sonny Gray8.812.43.6Spencer Patton36.240.44.1
Ubaldo Jimenez6.610.53.9Jose Diaz32.336.44.2
Collin McHugh6.510.54Danny Salazar34.438.64.2
Carlos Villanueva7.311.54.1Wily Peralta3943.34.3
Logan Verrett7.511.74.2Robbie Ross35.139.44.3
Jorge De La Rosa7.411.74.2Arquimedes Caminero32.136.54.4
Justin Nicolino7.611.84.3Jason Hammel30.134.54.4
Joel Peralta9.313.64.3Corey Kluber31.435.84.5
Clay Buchholz7.611.94.4Andrew Cashner31.4364.6
Antonio Bastardo5.19.64.5Aaron Nola34.539.34.8
Chris Hatcher711.44.5Jacob McGee30.1354.9
Shelby Miller6.911.54.6Ryan Madson29.734.75
Erasmo Ramirez10.214.94.7Fernando Salas25.430.45
Travis Wood5.510.24.8Matthew Wisler26.831.95.1
Justin Miller5.2104.8Fernando Rodriguez34.739.85.1
Jacob McGee6.811.85Jacob DeGrom29.9355.1
Alex Wilson7.612.65Michael Pineda30.735.95.2
Justin Grimm6.111.25.1Hunter Strickland25.430.85.4
Taylor Jungmann11.116.45.3Francisco Rodriguez38.6445.4
Justin Wilson5.210.65.3David Price3136.65.6
Joshua Fields7.6135.4Drew Hutchison31.537.35.8
Liam Hendriks4.810.25.4Odrisamer Despaigne3338.95.9
Jesse Chavez5.811.25.4Rich Hill26.9336.1
Tyler Wilson8.714.55.9Chris Hatcher27.934.16.2
Edwin Jackson6.812.75.9Oliver Perez2935.36.3
Randall Delgado5.911.95.9Kirby Yates3137.36.3
Jake Peavy5.611.55.9Lance McCullers36.442.76.3
Kenneth Giles7.113.36.2Mike Montgomery31.838.26.4
Zack Greinke6.412.76.2Taylor Jungmann32.138.86.7
Cody Anderson8.815.36.5Christopher Rusin32.138.86.7
Jonathon Niese7.814.87Dallas Keuchel37.444.26.8
Jaime Garcia6.313.47.1Mat Latos32.539.36.8
Steven Geltz815.17.1Ricky Nolasco29.836.76.9
Chris Young8.415.67.2Jonathan Papelbon25.2337.8
Tom Wilhelmsen9.416.97.6Blaine Hardy33.641.68
Kevin Jepsen6.214.98.7Alfredo Simon35.343.58.3
Cesar Ramos10.120.210.1Corey Knebel29.938.38.4
Erik Johnson9.221.312.1Henry Owens40.750.710
J.J. Hoover6.819.512.8Jerad Eickhoff30.140.310.2

Follow these links for the changes in value for each of the respective pitches: slider, curveball, changeup.


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Featured image courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports

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Ian is an immunologist and virologist who lives in Atlanta with his wife and two sons. Most of his time is spent driving his kids to baseball and soccer games, during which he indoctrinates his children on the glories of Pedro Martinez, the many virtues of the Montreal Expos, and other important information.

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